2018-base SA2-level population, family and household, and labour force projections for the Waikato region, 2018-2068

Report: TR 2021/24

Authors: Michael P. Cameron and William Cochrane (University of Waikato)

This report provides a set of 2021-base demographic projections at the SA2 (Statistical Area 2) level for the Waikato region. Projections prepared for each SA2 include population, household, and labour force projections for selected years (2025, 2035, 2045, 2055, and 2065).

This report builds on a previous report on demographic projections at the territorial authority level, and uses a common set of underlying assumptions. The projections were generated by statistically downscaling the territorial authority projections using the results obtained from a land use change model, embedded within the WISE (Waikato Integrated Scenario Explorer) model.

The statistical downscaling method involves generating estimates of SA2-level residential population directly from the land use model, while a regression model projects SA2-level non-residential population on the basis of the amount of land use of different types that is present in each SA2.

The SA2-level population projections closely follow the pattern at the territorial authority level, but with additional local-level detail. Waikato District, Hamilton City, and Waipā District provide the majority of population growth over the projection period. However, this population growth is especially concentrated in the peri-urban area immediately surrounding Hamilton City, and the area closest to Auckland, while smaller population centres, rural and peripheral areas are projected to experience much slower growth or even decline. The household and labour force projections closely follow the population projections.