Waikato Region Economy-Environment Futures Report

TR 2006/51
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Report: TR 2006/51

Author: Market Economics Ltd

Abstract

This report is a collection of economic and environmental data for both the Waikato region and New Zealand. This data has been used to set up an input-output table for the Waikato region’s economy, incorporating various environment-economy linkages. A scenario based environment-economy futures model has also been developed to assess the possible implications of future economic change within the Waikato region.

The information collected as part of this project provides a ‘snapshot’ of the existing Waikato economy and its associated environmental linkages; this information can be used as a point of comparison when assessing the outcomes of possible economic change. The estimated 2004 GRP for the Waikato region is $12.5 billion with the number of full time equivalent employees (FTEs) estimated at 152,000. This is the fourth largest regional economy in New Zealand being responsible for some 9.0 per cent of GDP in 2004.

Waikato Region Economy-Environment Futures Report [PDF, 306 KB]

Contents
Executive summary v
Methodology v
The Waikato region's economy and environment v
Waikato region's economy 2026 vi
Waikato region's environment 2026 vi
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Objectives 1
1.2 Issues 1
2 Approach 2
2.1 Establish database 2
2.2 Establish major industry trends and prospects 6
2.3 Economic and environmental impacts of major industry trends and prospects 6
PART A: The Waikato region economy 2003-2004 7
3 The Waikato region economy 2003-2004 7
3.1 The Waikato region economy 7
3.1.1 Gross regional product, employment and productivity by key industries 7
3.1.2 Consumption 9
3.1.3 Balance of trade 10
4 The Waikato region's economic dependence on the environment 2003-2004 11
4.1 Introduction 11
4.2 Land use 12
4.3 Delivered energy 12
4.4 Energy related air emissions 13
4.4.1 Carbon dioxide (CO2) 13
4.4.2 Nitrous oxide (N2O) 14
4.4.3 Methane (CH4) 14
4.5 Solid waste 15
PART B: Qualitative and quantitative projections for the Waikato region 2006-2026 16
5 Quantitative projections of economic growth 16
5.1 Introduction 16
5.2 Time series analysis 16
5.3 Population projections 17
5.4 Export projections 17
6 Literature search on Waikato futures 18
6.1 The dairy industry 19
6.2 The forestry industry 19
6.2.1 Forestry and logging 19
6.2.2 Wood and wood products manufacturing 19
6.2.3 Paper and paper products manufacturing 20
6.3 Transport 20
6.4 Other service industries 20
6.4.1 Education 20
6.4.2 Utilities 21
6.5 Mining and quarrying 21
6.6 Construction 21
6.7 Tourism 21
6.8 Summary of growth prospects 23
7 In-depth interviews 24
7.1 Summary of growth prospects 23
7.2 The interview process 24
7.3 Key results 24
8 Analysis of results 27
8.1 Dairy cattle farming 27
8.2 Dairy manufacturing 27
8.3 Forestry and logging 27
8.4 Wood and paper manufacturing 27
8.5 Utilities 28
8.6 Tourism 28
PART C: Scenario projections for the Waikato region 2006-2026 29
9 Scenario results 29
9.1 Introduction 29
9.2 Impacts on population and economy 30
9.3 Population 30
9.3.1 Employment 30
9.4 Gross regional product 31
9.5 Impacts of the economy on the environment 32
9.6 Land use 32
9.6.1 Delivered energy 36
9.6.2 Energy related air emissions 36
9.6.3 Solid waste 39
10 Policy implications and recommendations 42
10.1 Policy implications 42
10.2 Recommendations 44
Appendix A 44
Appendix B 50
Appendix C 55
References 56