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Regional climate change risk assessment

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About the project

Climate change is already impacting Aotearoa-New Zealand and is considered by many to be the most important challenge that we face.

To better understand the specific climate change risks for the Waikato, we are developing a comprehensive climate change risk assessment for the region. This risk assessment, the first for our region, will bring together our collective understanding of climate risk across all aspects of our environment, our people, our property and our economy. This project forms part of the council’s Climate Action Roadmap programme of work, and we are working closely with complementary projects, such as council’s Regional Resilience Project and the revision of our Climate Change Adaptation Guideline.

To support this work, we have engaged Tonkin + Taylor, who have advised on many of the climate change risk assessments completed by councils to date.

Why is a climate change risk assessment for the region important?

A regional climate change risk assessment will provide us all with a Waikato-specific understanding of climate risk and assist our collective regional response to adapt to climate change, as well as progress actions in the National Adaptation Plan (when finalised later this year).

It will also:

  • identify and highlight areas in which our region needs to focus our efforts to manage risks
  • identify gaps in our understanding
  • inform adaptation planning at a range of scale and by a range of parties, and build on existing adaptation planning projects in the region
  • support the development of any district-level assessments
  • help identify targeted action and further projects.

An interative and repeated process

The Waikato regional climate change risk assessment will become an iterative and repeated process for the region, aligned with the six yearly cycle of the NCCRA and National Adaptation Plan. Knowledge of climate change risks for the region will increase over subsequent risk assessment cycles, as a result of detailed climate change risk assessments by sub-regions and domains, specific adaptation planning projects and new understanding of risk and mitigations.

Project phases

Phase 1 (completed, funded by WRC): Identify and screen potential climate change risks to the region.

In February 2022, we commenced phase 1 of the Waikato regional climate change risk assessment, with the deliverable of this phase being a risk identification workbook of climate change risks for the Waikato region. Tonkin+Taylor, who have carried out a number of climate change risk assessments for local government, was engaged to advise the council and deliver phase 1.

The aim of phase 1 (risk identification) was to make a long list of potential climate change risks, drawing on knowledge from council subject matter experts, iwi and external stakeholders. This was achieved through a combination of a desktop review of in-house information, SME and technical focus group input via workshops and surveys, and external stakeholder and iwi engagement through a combination of surveys and workshops. The risks were organised by hazard, then risk element. Domains consistent with the National Climate Change Risk Assessment were used as a further lens applied to the hazards and risk elements.

Phase 2 (September 2022 to 30 June 2024): Detailed assessments - rate and identify information gaps

Phase 2 of the risk assessment will focus on shortlisting the long list of regional risks identified in phase 1 and carrying out a detailed assessment to rate the identified risks. This will be achieved by bringing together focus groups of experts to assess groups of risks.

Phase 2 will be a staged approach, starting with an initial pilot to enable a better understanding of the process and resource commitments so we can apply the learnings moving forward. A key objective of phase 2 is to identify a range of further work and projects to fill information gaps and improve understanding of climate change risk in the Waikato. Further detail on planning for phase 2 can be found in the above report.

Regional collaboration will be necessary to reach agreement on how to prioritise, fund and resource the further work and projects identified in phase 2. The National Adaptation Plan, together with upcoming resource management reforms, provide a prime opportunity for the council, iwi partners, Waikato territorial authorities and other partners/stakeholders to work together to ensure a robust, consistent and co-ordinated approach to climate change adaptation in the Waikato. To this end, the Regional Resilience Programme, which is funded through council’s long term plan 2021-2031, provides an implementation vehicle to achieve this. 

Climate Action Roadmap

Our Climate Action Roadmap identifies nine pathways to reduce emissions and adapt to the changes we’re already experiencing.