Land use, demographic and economic projections for the Waikato region, 2013 to 2063

TR 2016/03
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Report: TR 2016/03

Authors: Tony Fenton, Craig Briggs & Beat Huser (Waikato Regional Council), Garry McDonald (Market Economics Ltd), Michael Cameron, Bill Cochrane (NIDEA University of Waikato), Tony Fenton (Alchemists Ltd)

About this report

This report outlines the process and resulting data for land use, demographic and economic projections for the Waikato region, from a baseline in 2013 to 2063 (50 years time horizon).

The projections are at a Census Area Unit (CAU) level, and include land use change, population dynamics (population, household, labour force) and economic development (value-added, employment).

An overview is provided initially and then each projection output process is outlined.

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Land use, demographic and economic projections for the Waikato region, 2013 to 2063 [PDF, 4.3 MB]

Contents
1 Introduction
2 Process overview
3 WISE modelling - Development of land use projections
3.1 Overview
3.2 Update of WISE model to Version 1.4
3.3 Validation of WISE model and adjustments to the projections scenario 
4 Results: Land use projections by CAU
4.1 Process methodology
4.2 Projection results
4.2.1 Maps - areas of change
4.2.2 Probability of urbanisation
4.2.3 Changes in key land uses - MCK
5 Population, household and labour force projections for the Waikato region, 2013-2061
5.1 Overview
5.2. Data and methods
5.2.1 Data
5.2.2 Statistical downscaling method
5.2.3 Population projections for Waikato region
5.2.4 Population projections for territorial authorities
5.2.5 Population ageing
5.3 Population projections at the census area unitl level for the Waikato region
5.4 Discussion and conclusion
6 Projections of economic outcomes
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Methodology
6.2.1 Model selection
6.2.2 Data
6.2.3 Model specification
6.3 Results
6.3.1 Introduction to results
6.3.2 Regional results
6.3.3 Projections of economic outcomes across territorial authorities
6.3.4 Projections for each territorial authority
6.3.5 Area units
6.3.6 Comparison of the future proof employment projections against the MBIE short-term employment forecasts
6.4 Conclusion
  References
  Appendix 1: Land use estimates (2013) projections (2021-2061) by CAU
  Appendix 2: Population estimates (2006, 2013) and projections (2021-2061) by CAU
  Appendix 3: Households estimates (2013) and projections (2021-2061) by CAU
  Appendix 4: Labour force projections (2021-2061) by CAU
  Appendix 5: Economic estimates (2013) and projections (2021-2061) by CAU