Report: TR 2014/47
Author: MP Cameron and W Cochrane (University of Waikato)
Waikato Regional Council approached the University of Waikato in early 2014 with a request to prepare population, household and labour force projections at the territorial level for the Waikato region.
This project was to align with two other projects undertaken by the National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA) at the University of Waikato for the Future Proof group of partner councils (Hamilton City Council, Waikato District Council, Waipa District Council) and for the SmartGrowth partner councils (Tauranga City Council and Western Bay of Plenty District Council). The aligned projects have been completed, and detailed demographic projections have been reported for Future Proof (Jackson et al., 2014a) and SmartGrowth (Jackson et al., 2014b). The second report also includes detailed projections for other TAs in the Bay of Plenty (Rotorua District, Whakatane District, Kawerau District, and Opotiki District).
The goal of this suite of three projects was to adopt a common methodology and common set of demographic and economic assumptions to develop population projections across the entire Waikato and Bay of Plenty regions.
In sum, the project involved calculating population, household, and labour force projections for each territorial authority in the Waikato region, and for the region in total. The population projections include low, medium, and high variants based on different sets of demographic assumptions. These projections will feed into a follow-up report on projections at the Census Area Unit level (Cameron and Cochrane, 2014 forthcoming).
|2||Data and methods||2|
|2.2||The Cohort-component model||2|
|2.4||Fertility and mortality assumptions||5|
|2.6||Validation and calibration||7|
|2.7||Low and high projection assumptions||10|
|2.8||Family and household projection assumptions||10|
|2.9||Labour force projection assumptions||11|
|3||Population, family and household, and labour force projections||12|
|3.1||Population, household and labour force projections for Thames-Coromandel District||12|
|3.2||Population, household and labour force projections for Hauraki District||17|
|3.3||Population, household and labour force projections for Waikato District||21|
|3.4||Population, household and labour force projections for Hamilton City||25|
|3.5||Population, household and labour force projections for Matamata-Piako District||29|
|3.6||Population, household and labour force projections for Waipa District||33|
|3.7||Population, household and labour force projections for Otorohanga District||37|
|3.8||Population, household and labour force projections for South Waikato District||41|
|3.9||Population, household and labour force projections for Waitomo District||45|
|3.10||Population, household and labour force projections for Taupo District||49|
|3.11||Population, household and labour force projections for part-Rotorua District||53|
|3.12||Total population projection for the Waikato region||57|
|4||Discussion and conclusion||58|
|Appendix I: Population projections for Thames-Coromandel District, 2013-2063|
|Appendix II: Family and household projections for Thames-Coromandel District, 2013-2063|
|Appendix III: Labour force projections, 2013-2063|