Page content Page content Section navigation Topic navigation Accessibility keys Sitemap Search Contact us www.govt.nz portal
Go to Waikato Regional Council homepage
search icon mail icon contact us icon

  Services » Publications » Technical reports - by year » tr201447

Population, family and household, and labour force projections for the Waikato region, 2013-2063

On this page: about this report, read or download the report

Report: TR 2014/47

Author: MP Cameron and W Cochrane (University of Waikato)

About this report

Waikato Regional Council approached the University of Waikato in early 2014 with a request to prepare population, household and labour force projections at the territorial level for the Waikato region.

This project was to align with two other projects undertaken by the National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA) at the University of Waikato for the Future Proof group of partner councils (Hamilton City Council, Waikato District Council, Waipa District Council) and for the SmartGrowth partner councils (Tauranga City Council and Western Bay of Plenty District Council). The aligned projects have been completed, and detailed demographic projections have been reported for Future Proof (Jackson et al., 2014a) and SmartGrowth (Jackson et al., 2014b). The second report also includes detailed projections for other TAs in the Bay of Plenty (Rotorua District, Whakatane District, Kawerau District, and Opotiki District).

The goal of this suite of three projects was to adopt a common methodology and common set of demographic and economic assumptions to develop population projections across the entire Waikato and Bay of Plenty regions.

In sum, the project involved calculating population, household, and labour force projections for each territorial authority in the Waikato region, and for the region in total. The population projections include low, medium, and high variants based on different sets of demographic assumptions. These projections will feed into a follow-up report on projections at the Census Area Unit level (Cameron and Cochrane, 2014 forthcoming).

Read or download the report

Population, family and household, and labour force projections for the Waikato region, 2013-2063 (3mb)

Table of contents

  Executive summary v
1 Introduction 1
2 Data and methods 2
2.1 Data 2
2.2 The Cohort-component model 2
2.3 Base populations 4
2.4 Fertility and mortality assumptions 5
2.5 Migration assumptions 5
2.6 Validation and calibration 7
2.7 Low and high projection assumptions 10
2.8 Family and household projection assumptions 10
2.9 Labour force projection assumptions 11
3 Population, family and household, and labour force projections 12
3.1 Population, household and labour force projections for Thames-Coromandel District 12
3.2 Population, household and labour force projections for Hauraki District 17
3.3 Population, household and labour force projections for Waikato District 21
3.4 Population, household and labour force projections for Hamilton City 25
3.5 Population, household and labour force projections for Matamata-Piako District 29
3.6 Population, household and labour force projections for Waipa District 33
3.7 Population, household and labour force projections for Otorohanga District 37
3.8 Population, household and labour force projections for South Waikato District  41
3.9 Population, household and labour force projections for Waitomo District   45
3.10 Population, household and labour force projections for Taupo District   49
3.11 Population, household and labour force projections for part-Rotorua District   53
3.12 Total population projection for the Waikato region   57
4 Discussion and conclusion   58
  References  
  Appendix I: Population projections for Thames-Coromandel District, 2013-2063  
  Appendix II: Family and household projections for Thames-Coromandel District, 2013-2063  
  Appendix III: Labour force projections, 2013-2063  
About this site     Contact us     Feedback and complaints New Zealand Government